Washington Watch: Midterm elections: Senate control may not be determined until December. Here’s why.


The midterm elections are today, but it might take until December to find out if Democrats have kept their tenuous grip on the U.S. Senate.

That’s because one crucial Senate race is happening in Georgia, where state law requires a runoff election when no candidate wins a majority — often described as 50% plus one vote.

Related: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate

And see: Republican candidate Herschel Walker paid for girlfriend’s abortion, report says

Having to wait on Georgia would be a case of déjà vu for investors

and other election watchers. After the November 2020 elections, the state ran two Senate runoffs in January 2021 that Democrats won to take control of that chamber of Congress.

The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Democrats in control only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes.

Georgia’s 2022 Senate race features Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, as well as a Libertarian Party candidate, Chase Oliver.

Analysts at 22V Research said last week that they’re expecting a Georgia runoff, which would take place on Dec. 6.

“A surprise … would be a known outcome by the morning of November 9, but if that develops it’s very likely to be a pro-GOP signal and one that delivers a two- or three-seat Senate margin,” wrote 22V’s Kim Wallace and Sandra Namoos in a note.

“With so many tight races polling within the margin of error, it is more likely that we won’t know the outcome for the Senate until after a possible Georgia runoff on December 6th.”

An InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll conducted in late October found Walker had 48% support vs. 45% for Warnock, 2% for Oliver and 2% undecided.

An analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, Chris Krueger, has warned clients that Oliver’s presence in the race might ensure that there’s a runoff.

“There is a Libertarian candidate in the race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA)and GOP candidate Herschel Walker. That alone could keep the race margins under 50% +1,” wrote Krueger in a note earlier this year.

“Of course 2022 was going to overtime,” the Cowen analyst added.

Now read: Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say

Also : If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

The Ratings Game: Coinbase stock plunges on news of Binance-FTX merger, which sets up ‘seismic’ change in competition

Previous article

Market Extra: Short-term funding source for commercial real estate sees issuance tumble 80% from peak

Next article

You may also like


Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More in News