Republicans need to flip just five seats during Tuesday’s midterm elections in order to win majority control of the House of Representatives and would need to net one Senate seat to overcome Democrats’ marginal 50-seat majority in the Senate.
Republicans came into election night having better odds of winning both chambers than Democrats, with their odds being higher on the House side. As of Tuesday morning, FiveThirtyEight placed Republicans’ odds of taking majority control of the Senate at 59 in 100 and the party’s odds in the House at 84 in 100.
But as Democrats have held on to key seats, and few seats overall have flipped, betting markets have shifted to see Republicans having only about a 20% chance of winning a Senate majority, although they are still favored to win the House.
Read: Betting markets now see Democrats keeping their grip on Senate as midterm results so far don’t indicate a red wave
As the Associated Press calls results nationwide, follow along for updates on which seats are flipping.
The first congressional seats to flip were in Florida, where Republican Anna Paulina Luna defeated Democratic candidate Eric Lynn by 8.6 points (with 99% of results reported). The since-redrawn district was represented by Democrat Charlie Crist, who left the office to launch an unsuccessful challenge against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
A second seat flipped in the state is the Seventh District, where Republican Cory Mills came out on top with 58.5% of the vote. The district, currently represented by retiring Democrat Stephanie Murphy, was redrawn to be solidly red.
Republican Jen Kiggans ousted Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in Virginia’s Second Congressional District. Luria’s seat was one of two Virginia seats deemed “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. With 73% of the results reported, Kiggans had received 55% of the vote.
The other incumbent in a toss-up race, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, secured re-election with about 52% of the vote.
Republican Andy Ogles has won the contest to represent Tennessee’s Fifth Congressional District, the AP projected shortly after midnight. He received about 56% of the vote, with 97% reported.
Ogles will replace retiring Democrat Jim Cooper, who decided not to seek re-election following redistricting that shifted the district from a solid Democratic district to “likely” Republican, according to Cook Political Report.
Democrat Wiley Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District with 51.3% of the vote. The state senator’s win marks the first pick-up for Democrats.
The race was rated as a “toss-up” by CPR following Republican Rep. Ted Budd’s decision to leave the House to run for the open Senate seat in North Carolina. The AP has called the Senate race for Budd.
Two-term Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez defeated Republican Mayra Flores, who won a special election in June to replace Democratic Filemon Vela Jr., who left Congress to work at a lobbying firm. The two incumbents were set to square off following redistricting. Gonzalez picked up just under 53% of the vote, compared to Flores’ 44%.
With 54% of the vote, Republican George Santos flipped New York’s Third Congressional District. He will replace Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who vacated his seat to launch an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid.
Shortly before 2 a.m. Eastern, the AP called the Pennsylvania Senate race for the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor, John Fetterman. With 86% of precincts reporting, Fetterman edged out Republican hopeful Mehmet Oz by 2.4 points. Fetterman will replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, marking a major win for Democrats as they seek to hold onto majority control.
Republican Rep. Steve Chabot lost his re-election bid to Democratic nominee Greg Landsman. Chabot received 47.5% of the vote to Landsman’s 52.5% in a race deemed a “toss-up” by CPR.
Democrat Hillary Scholten won election to Michigan’s Third Congressional District, which was rated by CPR as “lean” Democratic, following Republican Rep. Peter Meijer’s primary loss.